Exploring the Dynamics of Global Plate Motion Based on the Granger Causality Test

Abstract

The geodynamic mechanism is the research focus and core issue of plate motions and plate tectonics. Analyzing the time series of earthquakes may help us understand the relationship between two plate boundaries and further explore movement mechanisms. Therefore, this paper uses earthquake event data and the Granger causality test method to quantitatively analyze the interaction and energy transfer relationship of plate boundaries from the viewpoint of statistics. The paper aims to explore the relationship between the pull effect and the push effect of plate motion and to provide knowledge to explore seismic energy transfer relationships, and even to predict earthquakes: (1) The directions of the global plate motion field are opposite to the directions of Granger causality between plate boundaries of the Pacific, Nazca, African, Australian, Eurasian, and Philippine plates. (2) The slab-pull force (not limited to the subduction force of the ocean plates) provides a main driving force for plate motions in the Pacific plate, Nazca plate, African plate, Australian plate, Eurasian plate, and Philippine sea plate. (3) The causality relationship and optimal lag length of energy release between plate boundaries may provide another view to forecasting earthquakes.