Multi-Scenario Simulation of a Water–Energy Coupling System Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Ningbo City

Abstract

In this work, based on the concept of collaborative water–energy development, a multi-scenario system dynamics simulation model of a water–energy coupling system was constructed by using the system dynamics modeling method. The model was composed of four subsystems: society, economic, water resources, and energy. Taking Ningbo City as the research location to run the simulation model, the analysis of the validity of the model showed that the relative error between the historical data and the simulation results of the model was less than 10%, which proved that the model passed the test. In this paper, based on the scenario of business an usual (BAU), three scenarios of water-saving scenario (WSS), energy-saving scenario (ESS), and comprehensive savings (CS, the comprehensive scenario considers water-saving and energy-saving together) were designed, and the simulation indexes in the three scenarios were refined in order to strengthen the control of water-saving policies, improve the effective use of water, optimize the industrial energy structure, improve the level of energy-saving-related technologies, and advance the urbanization process. The simulation results for Ningbo City from 2010 to 2030 show that the water–energy coupling system is affected by many factors, and the adjustment of a driving factor of any subsystem will have an impact on the water–energy coupling system. There are two driving factors: the first is a constant variable related to water resources, energy, society, and economic, and the second is a variable affected by time. The coupling system is based on the law of real development and is composed of causal and functional relationships between variables. Therefore, within the prediction range of 2030, the driving factors in the coupling system are controllable, and there is no uncontrollable situation. The strengthening of water-saving policies and the improvement of the coefficient of the effective utilization of water will have the optimal saving effects on water resources and energy at both the single and the coupling level; this also demonstrates that the water resource management in Ningbo City plays an extremely important role in the relationship of the water–energy coupling. The results of this study are expected to provide a valuable reference for the management and conservation of water–energy coupling in Ningbo City.