Flood Routing Model with Particle Filter-Based Data Assimilation for Flash Flood Forecasting in the Micro-Model of Lower Yellow River, China

Abstract

Reliable real-time flood forecasting is a challenging prerequisite for successful flood protection. This study developed a flood routing model combined with a particle filter-based assimilation model and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. This model was applied to an indoor micro-model, using the Lower Yellow River (LYR) as prototype. Real-time observations of the water level from the micro-model were used for data assimilation. The results show that, compared to the traditional hydrodynamic model, the assimilation model could effectively update water level, flow discharge, and roughness coefficient in real time, thus yielding improved results. The mean water levels of the particle posterior distribution are closer to the observed values than before assimilation, even when water levels change greatly. In addition, the calculation results for different lead times indicate that the root mean square error of the forecasting water level gradually increases with increasing lead time. This is because the roughness value changes greatly in response to unsteady water flow, and the incurring error accumulates with the predicted period. The results show that the assimilation model can simulate water level changes in the micro-model and provide both research method and technical support for real flood forecasting in the LYR.