Effect of Infection Hubs in District-Based Network Epidemic Spread Model

Abstract

A network model of epidemic spread accounting for inhomogeneous population district division is investigated. Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze the effects of infection development in the area, for example, of a city divided into several population districts. The districts are characterized by a certain intensity of contact inside and with inter-district communication that can be generally controlled by the authorities. Specifically, we consider the effect of the central district, which is the hub of infection. We investigate how the interaction strength influences the city’s level of epidemic development. We obtained that the final infected amount in the district rises with an increasing degree of connection with the hub. However, the model situation was not limited by the first outbreak but included the subsequent waves of infection. We obtained that the appearance and disappearance of subsequent waves of infection essentially depended on the intensity of communication with the infected hub. Our results suggest the mechanism where stricter communication policy can negatively affect the subsequent infection waves.