Assimilation of Water Vapor Retrieved from Radar Reflectivity Data through the Bayesian Method

Abstract

This work describes the implementation of an updated radar reflectivity assimilation scheme with the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) system of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF). The updated scheme, instead of the original scheme assuming the relative humidity to a fixed value where radar reflectivity is higher than a threshold, assimilates pseudo water vapor retrieved by the Bayesian method, which would be consistent with clouds/precipitations provided by the model in theory. To verify the effect of the updated scheme to the improvement of precipitation simulation, a convective case in Wenquan County and the continuous monthly simulation with contrasting experiments in Xinjiang were performed. The test of single reflectivity observation demonstrates that the water vapor retrieved by the Bayesian method is consistent with the meteorological situation around. In the convective case, both the updated and original scheme results show that the assimilation of pseudo water vapor can adjust to the environmental conditions of water vapor and temperature. This can improve the hourly precipitation forecast skill more than the contrasting experiment, which was designed to only assimilate conventional observations and radar radial velocity data. In the continuous monthly experiments, the updated scheme reveals that the analysis of water vapor is more reasonable, and obtains a better precipitation forecast skill for 6 h accumulated precipitation than the contrasting experiments.