Volatility Persistence and Spillover Effects of Indian Market in the Global Economy: A Pre- and Post-Pandemic Analysis Using VAR-BEKK-GARCH Model

Abstract

This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted stock market volatility and interconnectedness between India and other selected global economies. The analysis, using data from 2016 to 2024, reveals a substantial rise in volatility within both the Indian market and those of several other countries after the pandemic. Interestingly, the volatility transmission patterns also changed. While the Indian market’s volatility significantly influenced Brazil, China, and Mexico throughout the entire period, the influence of the US market became negligible post-pandemic. In contrast, Russia exhibited a weak but statistically significant impact on India’s volatility only after the pandemic. These findings highlight the lasting impact of the pandemic on global financial markets and emphasize the need for investors and policymakers to adapt. By understanding these new dynamics, investors can make more informed decisions, and policymakers can develop stronger risk management strategies and international coordination during periods of increased volatility. This study offers valuable insights for navigating the current financial landscape and the interconnectedness of emerging economies.