Identification of Homogeneous Groups of Actors in a Local AHP-Multiactor Context with a High Number of Decision-Makers: A Bayesian Stochastic Search

Abstract

The identification of homogeneous groups of actors in a local AHP-multiactor context based on their preferences is an open problem, particularly when the number of decision-makers is high. To solve this problem in the case of using stochastic AHP, this paper proposes a new Bayesian stochastic search methodology for large-scale problems (number of decision-makers greater than 20). The new methodology, based on Bayesian tools for model comparison and selection, takes advantage of the individual preference structures distributions obtained from stochastic AHP to allow the identification of homogeneous groups of actors with a maximum common incompatibility threshold. The methodology offers a heuristic approach with several near-optimal partitions, calculated by the Occam’s window, that capture the uncertainty that is inherent when considering intangible aspects (AHP). This uncertainty is also reflected in the graphs that show the similarities of the decision-maker’s opinions and that can be used to achieve representative collective positions by constructing agreement paths in negotiation processes. If a small number of actors is considered, the proposed algorithm (AHP Bayesian clustering) significantly reduces the computational time of group identification with respect to an exhaustive search method. The methodology is illustrated by a real case of citizen participation based on e-Cognocracy.