Regional Logistics Express Demand Forecasting Based on Improved GA-BP Neural Network with Indicator Data Characteristics

Abstract

In the current era, the government consistently emphasizes the pursuit of high-quality development, as evidenced by the ongoing increase in the tertiary industry’s GDP share. As a crucial component of the modern service sector, logistics plays a pivotal role in determining the operational efficiency and overall quality of the industrial economy. This study focuses on constructing a Chongqing logistics express demand prediction index system. It employs an improved BP neural network model to forecast the logistics express demand for Chongqing over the next five years. Given the limited express demand data sequence and the normalized characteristics of the data, the selected training method is the Bayesian regularization approach, with the LeCun Tanh function serving as the hidden layer activation function. Additionally, a genetic algorithm is designed to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of the BP neural network, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy and reducing the number of iterations. The experimental results of the improved GA-BP network are analyzed and compared, demonstrating that the improved BP neural network, utilizing GA optimization, can more reliably and accurately predict regional logistics express demand. According to the findings, the forecast indicates that the logistics express demand for Chongqing in 2026 will be 2,171,642,700 items.