A Utility Maximized Harvest Decision Model for Privately Owned Coniferous Forests in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

This study examined optimal harvesting decisions of multiple age-class private forests that maximize private forest owners’ utility. For this analysis, we developed two scenarios. One scenario was to maintain the harvest level currently performed in the Republic of Korea (ROK) (baseline scenario), and the other was to harvest according to the harvest prescription derived from the discrete-time utility model with a multiple age-class forest (optimization scenario). For the baseline scenario, the cohort component approach was applied to predict changes in the forest’s age structure under the given harvest level. For the optimization scenario, we applied a discrete-time utility model that can describe the consumption and cutting behavior of private forest owners who manage a multiple age-class forest. Then, we compared the changes of the timber supply level and forest structure dynamic by scenarios. The results showed that current harvesting in ROK is not at its optimal level. The baseline scenario results showed that if the current level of harvesting is maintained, a total of 1,315,000 m3 of soft wood will be supplied annually. However, the average annual wood supply will increase to 11,522,000 m3 under the maximized utility scenario. In terms of timber self-sufficiency, if all domestic wood produced is supplied as materials, the supply level from the optimization scenario will meet the government’s policy goal of a 30% timber self-sufficiency rate. However, if the baseline scenario is maintained, supply shortages can be expected by 2050.