The Extension and Improvement of the Forest Land Net Present Value Model and Its Application in the Asset Evaluation of Cunninghamia lanceolata Forest Land

Abstract

In order to solve the problem in that the classical forest land expectation value method ignores the actual forest stock volume when assessing the income at the end of the current production cycle in the forest, and fill the research gap in this area, the technical system of the forest land asset evaluation was enriched. The forest land returns were divided into two parts, i.e., the segmented forest land return price from the growth of the actual forest stand to the end of the growth cycle (Bu1), and the segmented forest land return price for an infinite number of growth cycles after the growth of the actual forest stand to the end of the growth cycle (Bu2). Through structure, the forest land gain price expansion model was obtained, and the stand quality including the average diameter at breast height, average height, stock volume, and outturn of stand as dummy variables were used to construct the growth harvest model related to asset evaluation. Taking Cunninghamia lanceolata forest land as an example, the traditional asset evaluation methods were comparatively analyzed. The residual standard deviation (RSD) of the growth model was less than 10%, the total relative error (TRE) and mean system error (MSE) were within ±10%, the mean prediction errors (MPE) were less than 5%, and the mean percentage standard errors (MPSE) were less than 10%, respectively. Combining the forest land net present value expansion model with the traditional evaluation method, the evaluation value of the forest land assets was subsequently calculated, and accordingly, the forest land asset evaluation prime stand factors were predicated. It was found that the valuation results of the forest land net present value expansion model were consistent with the actual situation. The forest land net present value expansion model can therefore be used for asset evaluation of tree forest land (including natural uneven-aged forest land), bamboo forest land, shrub forest land, and economic forest land, and provide new technical support for forest land asset evaluation.