A Prefeasibility Solar Photovoltaic Tool for Tropical Small Island Developing States

Abstract

Small island developing states (SIDS) are the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases yet are the most vulnerable to the impacts of global climate warming. Many islands, such as the Caribbean islands, identified solar photovoltaics as a technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from their electricity sector. However, prefeasibility economic studies for photovoltaics are challenging as operational photovoltaic system data are nonexistent, and the measured solar radiation datasets are limited. Thus, a prefeasibility PV tool that uses ground-measured global horizontal irradiation and a supplementary photovoltaic derating factor model is proposed for use in tropical SIDS. In addition, the bias of a modelled irradiation dataset was quantified with limited solar radiation data for a tropical Caribbean SIDS, Trinidad and Tobago. For this SIDS, the tool estimates the annual energy output of a 50 MW photovoltaic system to be 57,890 MWh and the levelized cost of electricity to be USD 0.12/kWh. The performance of the proposed tool was comparable with two existing prefeasibility models, RETScreen and SAM, which use past ground measurements and modelled data, respectively. The biases in the annual irradiation data for RETScreen and SAM were determined to be 6% and 25%, respectively, against the solar irradiance dataset used. The proposed tool may be useful for first approximation prefeasibility photovoltaic studies in similar regions with limited climatic data.