Fuzzy Algorithmic Modeling of Economics and Innovation Process Dynamics Based on Preliminary Component Allocation by Singular Spectrum Analysis Method

Abstract

In this article, the authors propose an algorithmic approach to building a model of the dynamics of economic and, in particular, innovation processes. The approach under consideration is based on a complex algorithm that includes (1) decomposition of the time series into components using singular spectrum analysis; (2) recognition of the optimal component model based on fuzzy rules, and (3) creation of statistical models of individual components with their combination. It is shown that this approach corresponds to the high uncertainty characteristic of the tasks of the dynamics of innovation processes. The proposed algorithm makes it possible to create effective models that can be used both for analysis and for predicting the future states of the processes under study. The advantage of this algorithm is the possibility to expand the base of rules and components used for modeling. This is an important condition for improving the algorithm and its applicability for solving a wide range of problems.