Land Potential Assessment of Napier Grass Plantation for Power Generation in Thailand Using SWAT Model. Model Validation and Parameter Calibration

Abstract

In Thailand, Napier grass is expected to play an important role as an energy resource for future power generation. To accomplish this goal, numerous areas are required for Napier grass plantations. Before introducing crops, the land potential of the country and the impact of crops on the environment should be assessed. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is very useful in investigating crop impacts and land potential. Unfortunately, the crop growth parameters of Napier grass are yet to be identified and, thus, conducting effective analysis has not been possible. Accordingly, in this study, parameter calibration and SWAT model validation of Napier grass production in Thailand was carried out using datasets from eight sites with 93 samples. Parameter sensitivity analysis was performed prior to parameter calibration, the results of which suggest that the radiation use efficiency and potential harvested index are both highly sensitive. The crop growth parameters were calibrated in order of their sensitivity index ranking, and the final values were obtained by reducing the root mean square error from 10.77 to 1.38 t·ha−1. The validation provides satisfactory results with coefficient of determination of 0.951 and a mean error of 0.321 t·ha−1. Using the developed model and calibrated parameters, local Napier grass dry matter yield can be evaluated accurately. The results reveal that, if only abandoned area in Thailand is used, then Napier grass can provide roughly 33,600–44,900 GWh of annual electricity, and power plant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can be reduced by approximately 21.2–28.3 Mt-CO2. The spatial distribution of estimated yield obtained in this work can be further utilized for land suitability analysis to help identify locations for Napier grass plantations, anaerobic digesters, and biogas power plants.