A Parallel Prediction Model for Photovoltaic Power Using Multi-Level Attention and Similar Day Clustering

Author:

Gao Jinming1ORCID,Su Xianlong1,Kim Changsu1ORCID,Cao Kerang2ORCID,Jung Hoekyung1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Pai Chai University, 155-40 Baejae-ro, Daejeon 35345, Republic of Korea

2. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Chemical Technology, Shenyang 110142, China

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significantly impacted by environmental factors that exhibit substantial uncertainty and volatility, posing a critical challenge for accurate PV power prediction in power system management. To address this, a parallel model is proposed for PV short-term prediction utilizing a multi-level attention mechanism. Firstly, gray relation analysis (GRA) and an improved ISODATA algorithm are used to select a dataset of similar days with comparable meteorological characteristics to the forecast day. A transformer encoder layer with multi-head attention is then used to extract long-term dependency features. Concurrently, BiGRU, optimized with a Global Attention network, is used to capture global temporal features. Feature fusion is performed using Cross Attention, calculating attention weights to emphasize significant features and enhancing feature integration. Finally, high-precision predictions are achieved through a fully connected layer. Utilizing historical PV power generation data to predict power output under various weather conditions, the proposed model demonstrates superior performance across all three climate types compared to other models, achieving more reliable predictions.

Funder

MSIT (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea

Nation Research Foundation of Korea

Publisher

MDPI AG

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