Verification of the Accuracy of Cervical Spinal Cord Injury Prognosis Prediction Using Clinical Data-Based Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Background: In patients with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI), we need to make accurate prognostic predictions in the acute phase for more effective rehabilitation. We hypothesized that a multivariate prognosis would be useful for patients with cervical SCI. Methods: We made two predictive models using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). We adopted MLR as a conventional predictive model. Both models were created using the same 20 clinical parameters of the acute phase data at the time of admission. The prediction results were classified by the ASIA Impairment Scale. The training data consisted of 60 cases, and prognosis prediction was performed for 20 future cases (test cohort). All patients were treated in the Spinal Injuries Center (SIC) in Fukuoka, Japan. Results: A total of 16 out of 20 cases were predictable. The correct answer rate of MLR was 31.3%, while the rate of ANNs was 75.0% (number of correct answers: 12). Conclusion: We were able to predict the prognosis of patients with cervical SCI from acute clinical data using ANNs. Performing effective rehabilitation based on this prediction will improve the patient’s quality of life after discharge. Although there is room for improvement, ANNs are useful as a prognostic tool for patients with cervical SCI.