Optimized Parameters for Detecting Multiple Forest Disturbance and Recovery Events and Spatiotemporal Patterns in Fast-Regrowing Southern China

Abstract

The timing, location, intensity, and drivers of forest disturbance and recovery are crucial for developing effective management strategies and policies for forest conservation and ecosystem resilience. Although many algorithms and improvement methods have been developed, it is still difficult to guarantee the detection accuracy for forest disturbance and recovery patterns in southern China due to the complex climate and topography, faster forest recovery after disturbance, and the low availability of noise-free Landsat images. Here, we improved the LandTrendr parameters for different provinces to detect forest disturbances and recovery trajectories based on the LandTrendr change detection algorithm and time-series Landsat images on the GEE platform, and then applied the secondary random forest classifier to classify the forest disturbance and recovery patterns in southern China during 1990–2020. The accuracy evaluation indicated that our approach and improved parameters of the LandTrendr algorithm can increase the detection accuracy for both the spatiotemporal patterns and multiple events of forest disturbance and recovery, with an overall accuracy greater than 86% and a Kappa coefficient greater than 0.91 for different provinces. The total forest loss area was 1.54 × 105 km2 during 1990–2020 (4931 km2/year); however, most of these disturbed forests were recovered and only 6.39 × 104 km2 was a net loss area (converted to other land cover types). The area with two or more times of disturbance events accounted for 11.50% of the total forest loss area. The total forest gain area (including gain after loss and the afforestation area) was 5.44 × 105 km2, among which, the forest gain area after loss was 8.94 × 104 km2, and the net gain area from afforestation was 4.55 × 105 km2. The timing of the implementation of forestry policies significantly affected the interannual variations in forest disturbance and recovery, with large variations among different provinces. The detected forest loss and gain area was further compared against with inventory and other geospatial products, and proved the effectiveness of our method. Our study suggests that parameter optimization in the LandTrendr algorithm could greatly increase the accuracy for detecting the multiple and lower rate disturbance/recovery events in the fast-regrowing forested areas. Our findings also offer a long-term, moderate spatial resolution, and precise forest dynamic data for achieving sustainable forest management and the carbon neutrality goal in southern China.