Impact of Climate Change on Alpine Phenology over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1981 to 2020

Abstract

Climate change is a major driver of cyclical and seasonal changes in alpine phenology. This study investigated how climate change affects vegetation phenology’s spatial and temporal responses on the Qinghai–Tibet plateau (QTP) from 1981 to 2020. We used the daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) at a 0.05° spatial resolution for 1981–2014, 16-day moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index data for 2000–2020 at 250 m spatial resolution, and climate records from 106 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2020 to construct linear regression models and Mann–Kendall point test to understand the changes on QTP vegetation in response to climate change. We found that the temperature in April, July, and September controls vegetation growth, and spring precipitation (p < 0.05) influences the length of the growing period, with a partial correlation coefficient of −0.69. Over the past 40 years, temperature and precipitation changes on the QTP have not shown abrupt shifts despite the increasingly warm and dry spring climate. We observed a meridional distribution trend in the correlation between precipitation and alpine vegetation greening, browning and the length of the growing period. In regions experiencing strong warming, vegetation growth was hindered by a lack of precipitation. We conclude that climatic factors alone cannot fully explain the changing trends in vegetation phenology across the QTP.