Estimating the Potential Differential Settlement of a Tailings Deposit Based on Consolidation Properties Heterogeneity

Abstract

Processing of extracted oil sands generates substantial volumes of tailings slurries. Due to the scale and inherent variability of the tailings properties, consolidation settlement is expected to occur at different rates and magnitudes across the tailings deposit. Estimating potential differential settlement of the consolidated deposit surface is an essential input for closure design. This paper presents a three-step methodology that generates multiple realizations of quasi-three-dimensional (3D) surfaces of the consolidated deposit based on the adjacent points. Each point is based on a stochastic one-dimensional (1D) large strain consolidation model developed with Monte Carlo techniques in GoldSim. The simulated surfaces provide early estimates of differential settlement based on the variability of consolidation properties expected in the tailings deposit. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses are performed for differently treated tailings material through 28 distinct scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of the developed 1D and 3D models to consolidation input parameters over a 40-year time period. The analysis demonstrated that differential settlement is highly sensitive to tailings compressibility and hydraulic conductivity governed by the constitutive relationship parameters, and less sensitive to the solids content, specific gravity or thickness of a surcharge load. Tailings that underwent steady continuous settlement exhibited the largest degree of differential settlement.