Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystems Based on Adaptive Restoration to Promote Human–Nature Harmony: A Case Study of Loess Hills Micro-Watershed

Abstract

The ecological environment in loess hilly regions is fragile, and the contradiction between the development of human society and ecological environment protection is becoming more and more prominent with the intensification of human interference. In order to give full play to the role of ecosystem adaptation in ecological restoration, this study seeks natural conditions that are suitable for the stable existence of ecosystems in the Wanhuigou catchment using the reference ecosystem method and uses these conditions as constraints of the GeoSOS-FLUS model for multi-scenario simulation. Based on ecosystem service value and ecological compensation mechanisms, the comprehensive benefits of different scenarios are compared, and economic development is taken into account while ensuring that ecological protection remains a priority. The results show the following: (1) The unstable ecosystems concentrated on a gentle slope (5–15°) at altitudes of 1201–1379 m, 1201–1594 m, 1379–1715 m and 1715–1856 m are suitable for restoration to farmland, shrub, grassland and forest ecosystems, respectively, and the change characteristics of soil and vegetation communities also verify the above conclusions. (2) The scenario of agricultural development from 2020 to 2030 and the early stages from 2030 to 2050 is the best among the three scenarios, while the scenario of ecological protection is the best in the middle and late stages of 2030–2050. Formulating relevant policies and ecological protection measures according to the scenario of ecological protection is more conducive to promoting the harmonious coexistence of humans and nature. (3) Under the scenario of ecological protection, the unstable ecosystem distributed along the gentle slope (5–15°) of 1379–1483 m and 1483–1594 m achieves the most significant improvement in ecosystem service value by focusing on and giving priority to the restoration of natural conditions that are suitable for the stable existence of ecosystems. This study provides ideas and references for the formation of ecosystem restoration and development strategies for small watersheds in loess hilly regions, and it is of great significance for the promotion of a harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.