An Efficient Method for the Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems Considering the Variable Photovoltaic Power Output

Abstract

The operational reliability of power systems is threatened by the random failure of components and uncertain power output of renewable energies, such as photovoltaics. Under such circumstances, reliability evaluation is necessary for maintaining a continuous and stable energy supply. However, traditional reliability evaluation methods are usually extremely time-consuming, considering the numerous system states that need to be analysed. Hence, the reliability evaluation process cannot follow up the dynamic changes in PV output, which makes the timeline of the evaluation disappointing. This paper proposes an efficient reliability evaluation method for power systems with PV integration. The method reveals the analytical relationship between the reliability levels of the power system and the uncertainty factors that influence the reliability, such as the PV output. In this way, the dynamic reliability evaluation is achieved, and the evaluation results can be updated timely when the output of PV changes. First, a Gaussian mixture-hidden Markov model (GMM-HMM) is used to model the distribution characteristics of PV output. Then, the state enumeration and the hyperbolic truncated polynomial chaos expansion method are used to determine the analytical relationship between the reliability indices and PV output. Lastly, based on the analytical function, the operational reliability of the power systems is dynamically evaluated considering the real-time PV output. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using the modified IEEE 30 system as an example.