Predicting Models for Local Sedimentary Basin Effect Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Abstract

Although the numerical models can estimate the significant influence of local site conditions on the seismic propagation characteristics near the surface in many studies, they cannot feasibly predict the seismic ground motion amplification in regular engineering practice or earthquake hazard assessment due to the high computational cost and their complex implementation. In this paper, the scattering problem of trapezoidal sedimentary basins, one of the representatives of local complex sites with a relatively small model size, and simplified by practice in this type of study, was selected as the basin model. A series of standard basin models were built to quantify the relationship between the site condition parameters and the site amplification parameters (the peak ground acceleration and the hazard location). In addition, the factors that influence seismic ground motion amplification, such as the basin shape ratio, the soil depth, the basin edge dip angle, the ratio of shear wave velocity between the bedrock and the soil layer, the damping coefficient, and the fundamental frequency, were selected to investigate the sensitivity. A convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm based on deep learning replacing traditional recursive algorithms was explored to establish a prediction model of basin amplification characteristics. By the Bayesian optimization method, the structural parameters of the CNN predicting model were selected to improve the accuracy of the prediction model. The results show that the optimized CNN models could predict the amplification characteristics of the basin better than the un-optimized CNN models. Three prediction models were established with the site condition parameters as the input parameters and their output parameters were the maximum amplification value of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the hazard location, and their combination for each basin. To analyze the CNN’s prediction ability, each CNN model used about 80% of the data from the seismic model repose results for training and the remaining data (20%) for testing. By comparing the CNN prediction results with the FE simulation results, the accuracy and rationality of each prediction model were studied. The results show that, compared to a single numerical model, the CNN prediction results of the site amplification features could be quickly obtained by inputting the relevant parameters. Compared to recursive class models, the established CNN prediction model can directly establish the relationships among multiple input and multiple output parameters. A comparison of the three kinds of CNN models shows that the prediction accuracy of the joint parameter model was slightly lower than that of the two single-output models.