The Modeling and Forecasting of Carabid Beetle Distribution in Northwestern China

Abstract

Beetles are key insect species in global biodiversity and play a significant role in steppe ecosystems. In the temperate steppe of China, the increasing degeneration of the grasslands threatens beetle species and their habitat. Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), we aimed to predict and map beetle richness patterns within the temperate steppe of Ningxia (China). We tested 19 environmental predictors including climate, topography, soil moisture and space as well as vegetation. Climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, soil temperature) consistently appeared among the most important predictors for beetle groups modeled. GAM generated predictive cartography for the study area. Our models explained a significant percentage of the variation in carabid beetle richness (79.8%), carabid beetle richness distribution seems to be mainly influenced by temperature and precipitation. The results have important implications for management and conservation strategies and also provides evidence for assessing and making predictions of beetle diversity across the steppe.