Affiliation:
1. Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2. Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, School of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
3. Department of Plant Medicine (Entomology), College of Agriculture and Life Science, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of Korea
4. Department of Forestry, College of Agriculture, University of Sargodha, Sargodha 40100, Pakistan
Abstract
A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species’ distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.
Funder
Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Special of Jiangxi Forestry Department
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Reference80 articles.
1. Review of CLIMEX and MaxEnt for studying species distribution in South Korea;Byeon;J. Asia-Pac. Biodivers.,2018
2. Lee, H.W. A study of Methodologies Assessing Species Susceptibility to Climate Change; Issue studies of Korea Environment Institute: 2010.
3. Assessing the global risk of establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche models;Kumar;J. Econ. Entomol.,2015
4. Variation in the potential distribution of Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) globally and in Pakistan under current and future climatic conditions;Hayat;Plant Protect. Sci.,2021
5. A Study of GIS prediction model of domestic fruit cultivation location changes by the global warming-six tropical and sub-tropical fruits;Kwak;J. Korea Spat. Inf. Syst. Soc.,2008
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献