Reconstructing the Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Northern Part of the Greater Khingan Mountains over the Past 210 Years Using Tree Ring Width Data

Abstract

In northeastern China, simultaneous reconstruction of temperature and precipitation changes in the same region using tree ring data has not yet been reported, limiting our understanding of the historical climate. Using tree ring samples from the Greater Khingan Mountains, it was established that there are five standardized tree ring width chronologies of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica at five elevations. Correlation analyses revealed significant relationships between the tree ring chronologies and climate data for multiple months. Specifically, the correlation coefficient between the average minimum temperature from May to July and the composite chronologies of mid–high and mid-elevations was 0.726, whereas that between the total precipitation from August to July and the low-elevation chronology was 0.648 (p < 0.01). Based on these findings, we reconstructed two series: the average minimum temperature from May to July over the past 211 years and the total precipitation from August to July over the past 214 years. The reconstructed sequences revealed changes in the average minimum temperature from 1812 to 2022 and precipitation from 1809 to 2022 in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains. The variances explained by the reconstruction equations were 0.528 and 0.421 (adjusted R-squared: 0.520 and 0.411), with F-test values of 65.896 and 42.850, respectively, exceeding the significance level of 0.01. The reliability of the reconstructed sequences was validated by historical records of meteorological disasters and the reconstruction results in the surrounding area. The reconstructed temperature and precipitation sequences exhibited distinct patterns of temperature fluctuations, dry–wet changes, and periodic oscillations. The region experienced two warm periods (1896–1909 and 2006–2020), two cold periods (1882–1888 and 1961–1987), a wet period (1928–1938), a drought period (1912–1914), and a period prone to severe drought events (1893–1919) during the past 210 years. The temperature series showed periodicities of 2–2.5 years, 3.9 years, 5.2 years, and 68 years, while the precipitation series exhibited periodicities of 2.1 years, 2.5 years, and 2.8 years, possibly related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, quasi-biennial oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed temperature and precipitation sequences accurately represented the hydrothermal changes in the study area.