Analysis of Drought Characteristic of Sichuan Province, Southwestern China

Abstract

Drought is a widespread and destructive natural hazard and is projected to occur more frequently and intensely, with more severe impacts in a changing environment. In this study, we used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various time scales (i.e., 3, 6, and 12 months) to provide an overall view of drought conditions across Sichuan Province, southwestern China, from 1961 to 2016. Then, the relationship between the SPI and the soil moisture anomalies was analyzed. Furthermore, the causes of SPI drought from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulation were assessed in the study area. The results showed that most stations with decreasing trends were located in the eastern part of Sichuan Province, while most stations with increasing trends were located in the northwestern part, indicating that the eastern region presented a drying trend, while the northwestern part exhibited a wetting trend. The specific analysis focused on extreme drought indicated an increasing occurrence the probability of extreme drought events, which could induce a high potential drought risk in the study area. The SPI values had a strong relationship with the soil moisture anomalies, and the linear correlation coefficients decreased as the time scale increased. This result indicated that SPI3 (3-month SPI) could be regarded as a good predictor of soil moisture drought. The cross wavelet analysis revealed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had statistically significant correlations with the SPIs in Sichuan Province. The results of this study are useful for assessing the change in local drought events, which will help reduce the losses caused by drought disasters in Sichuan Province.