Evaluating the Degree of Uncertainty of Research Activities in Industry 4.0

Abstract

Research and development (R&D) are always oriented towards new discoveries, based on original terms or hypotheses, and their concluding outcomes are often uncertain. The present work focused on the degree of uncertainty for R&D activities. In fact, uncertainty makes it difficult to quantify the time and resources needed to achieve a final outcome, create a work plan and budget, and finalize the resulting “innovative” products or services that could be transferred or exchanged in a specific market. The present work attempts to indicate the degree of uncertainty of the research activities developed by a set of firms. The method used aimed to quantify the five criteria defined by the Manual of Frascati. Through the creation of an uncertainty cloud, a cone of uncertainty was defined following an approach based on project management. The evaluation grid was characterized by the decomposition of the different variables divided into quartiles, which allowed for the detection of the evolution of the project and each of its component. The ancillary objective aim was to also observe the development degree of these industries towards a framework of Industry 4.0.