Comprehensive Analysis of Land Use Change and Carbon Sequestration in Nepal from 2000 to 2050 Using Markov Chain and InVEST Models

Abstract

The escalating pace of migration and urbanization in Nepal has triggered profound alterations in land use practices. This event has resulted in a considerable diminution of ecological diversity and a substantial decline in the potential for carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services, thereby impeding climate change mitigation efforts. To address this, a comprehensive assessment of land use change and carbon storage was conducted from 2000 to 2019 and forecasted to 2050 in Nepal. Employing the Markov chain and InVEST models, this study evaluated the loss and gain of carbon, elucidating its economic value and spatial distribution. The findings revealed that carbon storage in 2000 and 2019 were 1.237 and 1.271 billion tons, respectively, with a projected increase to 1.347 million tons by 2050. Carbon sequestration between 2000 and 2019 amounted to 34.141 million tons, which is anticipated to surge to 76.07 million tons from 2019 to 2050, translating to economic valuations of 110.909 and 378.645 million USD, respectively. Forests emerged as pivotal in carbon storage, exhibiting higher carbon pooling than other land use types, expanding from 37% to 42% of the total land area from 2000 to the predicted year 2050. Notably, carbon distribution was concentrated in parts of the terai and mountain regions, alongside significant portions of the hilly terrain. The findings from this study offer valuable insights for governing Nepal and REDD+ in developing and implementing forest management policies. The results emphasize the importance of providing incentives to local communities judiciously to promote effective conservation measures.