Do Chinese Photovoltaic Products Have Trade Potential in RCEP Countries? A BP Neural-Network-Improved Trade Gravity Model Analysis

Abstract

China plays an important role in the global trade of photovoltaic products, and the RCEP agreement provides more opportunities and possibilities for China. This paper develops an improved trade gravity model with BP neural networks to estimate trade potentials, and the following conclusions are obtained: (1) The BP neural network is a more effective estimation method than traditional pooled regression, fixed effects, and random effects, and the combination of multiple neural networks for prediction can lead to higher robustness and accuracy. (2) The potential of China’s trade in PV products to RCEP countries is relatively mature, but the scale of trade in PV products between China and Japan and other countries may still be further expanded. (3) China’s trade potential for different regions in the RCEP agreement changed historically in different processes, with China’s trade potential for the Oceania region declining, while its trade potential for the East and Southeast Asia region increased in recent years.