Tactical Situations and Playing Styles as Key Performance Indicators in Soccer

Abstract

The game of soccer is complex and unpredictable, demanding multifaceted strategies for success. Performance analysis has evolved, focusing on key performance indicators (KPIs) to determine the factors that most significantly influence a team’s success or failure during matches. Traditional performance analysis methods have emphasized quantifiable data like physical exertion and basic play events but often neglected the subtler tactical dimensions that could significantly impact game outcomes. This study aimed to fill the gap in the current literature by creating a comprehensive framework that incorporates tactical situations as KPIs. The objective was to examine whether specific playing styles adopted by teams in various tactical situations and phases of the game could predict the outcome of matches. A dataset comprising all First Division Championship matches from 11 different European countries for the 2021–2022 season was analyzed. Variables representing tactical situations were correlated with match outcomes using a Generalized Estimating Equation framework. The model was specified with a binomial distribution and a logit link function. Statistical significance was determined using Wald χ2 tests with a significance level set at p < 0.05. The study’s findings revealed that possession style, counterattacking during offensive transitions, and a balanced aggressive defensive strategy significantly increase a team’s chances of victory. It also showed that successful teams tend to focus on central attacks, minimize crossing, and execute strategic plays that lead to final attempts on goal with minimal ball possession. The above findings demonstrate that adopting certain tactical approaches significantly influences soccer match outcomes, highlighting the importance of considering tactical aspects as KPIs.