Research on Climate Change in Qinghai Lake Basin Based on WRF and CMIP6

Abstract

Climate change directly affects water resources by changing temperature and precipitation and the responses of inland basins on plateaus to climate change show a certain pattern. To systematically evaluate the changing facts and evolution trend of temperature and precipitation in the Qinghai Lake Basin, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was used to simulate the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in typical periods of the current year based on the observations of hydrological and meteorological stations. Based on the output results of different climate models in CMIP6, the temporal changing trends of temperature and precipitation were predicted. The results showed that precipitation and runoff significantly increased compared to the past, and the lake level first decreased and then increased. In August 2020, the temperature and precipitation near the lake were higher than those in the other areas of the basin. In the future, temperature and precipitation will increase under the influence of different forcing scenarios with the temperature change being more significant. A close combination of observations and simulations will provide quantitative spatiotemporal data and technical support for future climate change adaptability research in the Qinghai Lake Basin.