Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015

Abstract

Precipitation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and one of the important indicators of climate change. Due to climate change, extreme precipitation events have globally and regionally increased in frequency and intensity, leading to a higher probability of natural disasters. This study, using the long-term APHRODITE dataset, employed six precipitation indices to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin during 1951–2015. The Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to verify the significance of the observed trends. The results indicate that: (1) the interannual PRCPTOT showed a trend with an average positive increase of 0.019 mm/yr, which was followed by an increase in SDII, R95P, and RX1day, and a decrease in R95D and CWD; seasonal PRCPTOT also displayed an increase in summer and winter and a decrease in spring and autumn, corresponding to increases in R95P and SDII in all seasons. (2) The annual precipitation increases from the west to east of the basin, similar to the gradient distribution of SDII, R95P and RX1day, with the high R95D happening in the middle and lower reaches of the Xijiang River, but the CWD increased from the north to south of the basin. The seasonal spatial distributions of PRCPTOT, SDII, and R95P are relatively similar except in autumn, showing an increase from the west to east of the basin in spring and winter and a gradual increase from the north to south of the basin in summer, indicating that the Beijiang and Dongjiang tributary basins are more vulnerable to floods. (3) The MK test results exhibited that the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau region in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River Basin became drier, and there was an increase in extreme precipitation in the Beijiang and Dongjiang river basins. The study results facilitate valuable flood mitigation, natural hazard control and water resources management in the Pearl River Basin.