A Bayesian and Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Multilevel Community Resilience Evaluation Method and Application Study

Abstract

Cities are complex systems influenced by a multitude of factors, encompassing society, economy, culture, and environment. These factors make urban development highly vulnerable to various disturbances. Communities work as the fundamental building blocks of a city and directly impact both its social structure and spatial layout. Moreover, urban planning and policies play a crucial role in shaping the development trajectory of communities and the living environment for residents. This study aims to develop a Bayesian and analytic hierarchy process (BAHP)-based multilevel community resilience evaluation method to assess the ability of the community system to withstand disturbances and recover from them. First, the proposed method establishes a comprehensive assessment index system that can evaluate social and environmental resilience as well as institutional and managerial resilience at multiple levels. This system serves as a quantitative decision-making tool to elucidate the impact of various factors on community resilience. Furthermore, the “relative demand coefficient” (RDC) is proposed to compare different communities’ resilience by using Bayesian inference to determine its most probable value (MPV). To validate the applicability of the proposed method, an empirical study was conducted in the Dafapu community located in the Longgang District of Shenzhen. Meanwhile, a simulated virtual community is employed for comparison with the Dafapu community as an illustrative example showcasing the proposed method’s superior performance after integrating the RDC. The empirical study demonstrates that the proposed BAHP-based method can effectively and quantitatively highlight the recovery capabilities and limitations for different communities in various dimensions while providing a clear direction for enhancing urban community resilience. This research contributes new insights to the theory, provides a practical tool to quantify community resilience, and offers a viable path for the actual enhancement of community resilience.