Modelling Trends in Urban Flood Resilience towards Improving the Adaptability of Cities

Abstract

Urban flooding is one of the main challenges affecting sustainable urban development worldwide, threatening the safety and well-being of communities and citizens. The aim of this study is to assess the development and trends in urban flood resilience at the city scale, as well as to improve the resilience of cities to these risks over time. The study constructs a model for assessing urban flood resilience that incorporates economic, social, ecological, and managerial aspects and assesses them through a range of indicators identified in the literature. The comprehensive evaluation model of Network Analysis Method–Entropy Weight Method–The Distance between Excellent and Inferior Solutions (ANP-EWM-TOPSIS) was used to empirically investigate the flood resilience characteristics of Nanjing from 2010 to 2021. There are two main findings of the study: firstly, the flood resilience of Nanjing gradually improves over time, as the economic flood resilience steadily increases, while the social, ecological, and management flood resilience decreases; and secondly, during the study period, barriers caused by economic and regulatory factors in Nanjing decreased by 33.75% and 23.72%, respectively, while barriers caused by social and ecological factors increased by 32.69% and 24.68%, respectively. The novelty of this study is the introduction of a “barrier degree” model, which identifies and highlights barriers and obstacles to improving urban flood resilience and provides new insights into improving urban flood resilience at the city scale.