The Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endemic Anurans from Mexico’s Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract

Mexico is one of the richest countries in amphibian species (420 spp.), with a high level of endemism (69%). The order Anura represents the most diverse and widespread of the three extant amphibian orders (257 spp.). The anurofauna of Mexico’s tropical dry forest ecosystem host a high proportion of the species and endemism registered in the country. In terms of conservation, both dry forests and amphibians are at risk due to climate change because it is expected that as the temperature becomes higher and precipitation decreases, this vegetation type may experience water stress. We applied the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the potential current and future (year 2070) geographic distribution patterns of 95 endemic Mexican anuran species inhabiting the country’s tropical dry forests by considering two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and analyzed the potential distributional pattern changes. The results indicated that overall, species would experience enough of a significant warming effect to cause a reduction in the original distribution area, with 44% of species losing an average of 50% of their original range (9 spp. in threatened category); additionally, 22% of the species in the dry forest ecosystem will experience an average increase of almost 50% in their original area, two species will lose more than 80% of their range, and one will disappear.