A Literature Review on System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Management of Water Supply and Demand

Abstract

Water supply and demand management (WSDM) is essential for developing sustainable cities and societies. WSDM is only effective when tackled from the perspective of a holistic system understanding that considers social, environmental, hydrological, and economic (SEHEc) sub-systems. System dynamics modeling (SDM) is recommended by water resource researchers as it models the biophysical and socio-economic systems simultaneously. This study presents a comprehensive literature review of SDM applications in sustainable WSDM. The reviewed articles were methodologically analyzed considering SEHEc sub-systems and the type of modeling approach used. This study revealed that problem conceptualization using the causal loop diagram (CLD) was performed in only 58% of the studies. Moreover, 70% of the reviewed articles used the stock flow diagram (SFD) to perform a quantitative system analysis. Furthermore, stakeholder engagement plays a significant role in understanding the core issues and divergent views and needs of users, but it was incorporated by only 36% of the studies. Although climate change significantly affects water management strategies, only 51% of the reviewed articles considered it. Although the scenario analysis is supported by simulation models, they further require the optimization models to yield optimal key parameter values. One noticeable finding is that only 12% of the articles used quantitative models to complement SDM for the decision-making process. The models included agent-based modeling (ABM), Bayesian networking (BN), analytical hierarchy approach (AHP), and simulation optimization multi-objective optimization (MOO). The solution approaches included the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The key findings for the sustainable development of water resources included the per capita water reduction, water conservation through public awareness campaigns, the use of treated wastewater, the adoption of efficient irrigation practices including drip irrigation, the cultivation of low-water-consuming crops in water-stressed regions, and regulations to control the overexploitation of groundwater. In conclusion, it is established that SDM is an effective tool for devising strategies that enable sustainable water supply and demand management.