Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Abstract

The output of construction and demolition (C&D) waste in China has been rapidly increasing in the past decades. The direct landfill of such construction and demolition waste without any treatment accounts for about 98%. Therefore, recycling and utilizing this waste is necessary. The prediction of the output of such waste is the basis for waste disposal and resource utilization. This study takes Shandong Province as a case, the current output of C&D waste is analyzed by building area estimation method, and the output of C&D waste in the next few years is also predicted by Mann–Kendall trend test and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method. Results indicate that the annual productions of C&D waste in Shandong Province demonstrates a significant growth trend with average annual growth of 11.38%. The growth rates of each city differ a lot. The better the city’s economic development, the higher the level of urbanization, the more C&D waste generated. The prediction results suggest that the output of C&D waste in Shandong Province will grow at an average rate of 3.07% in the next few years. By 2025, the amount of C&D waste will reach 141 million tons. These findings can provide basic data support and reference for the management and utilization of C&D waste.