Assessing Future Agricultural Vulnerability in Kashmir Valley: Mid- and Late-Century Projections Using SSP Scenarios

Abstract

The fragile environment of the Himalayan region is prone to natural hazards, which are intensified by climate change, leading to food and livelihood insecurity for inhabitants. Therefore, building resilience in the most dominant livelihood sector, i.e., the agricultural sector, has become a priority in development and planning. To assess the perils induced by climate change on the agriculture sector in the ecologically fragile region of Kashmir Valley, a study has been conducted to evaluate the risk using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework. The risk index has been derived based on socioeconomic and ecological indicators for risk determinants, i.e., vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. Furthermore, the study also evaluated the future risk to the agriculture sector under changing climatic conditions using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 at mid- and late-century timescales. It was observed that districts such as Bandipora (0.59), Kulgam (0.56), Ganderbal (0.56), and Kupwara (0.54) are most vulnerable due to drivers like low per capita income, yield variability, and areas with >30% slope. Shopian and Srinagar were found to be the least vulnerable due to adaptive capacity factors like livelihood diversification, crop diversification, percentage of tree crops, and percentage of agriculture labor. In terms of the Risk index, the districts found to be at high risk are Baramulla (0.19), Pulwama (0.16), Kupwara (0.15), and Budgam (0.13). In addition, the findings suggested that the region would experience a higher risk of natural hazards by the mid- (MC) and end-century (EC) due to the projected increase in temperature with decreasing precipitation, which would have an impact on crop yields and the livelihoods of farmers in the region.