Socio-Economic Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mexico: An Analytical Exploration over Three Decades

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become a critical environmental issue with significant implications for global climate change. Understanding the factors that influence GHG emissions is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study focuses on Mexico, a country that has experienced substantial economic and social changes over the past two decades. The primary objective was to analyze the impact of various economic and social variables on GHG emissions in Mexico using correlation and Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis. The variables under consideration included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), energy consumption, population, per capita income, income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient), and educational levels. Results showed that GDP, energy consumption, and population are positively correlated with GHG emissions and negatively correlated with income inequality. The Granger causality analysis showed that GDP and per capita income are strong predictors of GHG emissions; in contrast, income inequality and educational levels do not exhibit direct causative impacts on emissions. Finally, it was found that higher educational levels may contribute to lower GHG emissions. With this evidence, climate policies in Mexico can be formulated by addressing key areas, and policymakers can design strategies that effectively manage and reduce GHG emissions, aligning with sustainable development goals and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.