Near-Real Prediction of Earthquake-Triggered Landslides on the Southeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Earthquake-triggered landslides (ETLs) feature large quantities, extensive distributions, and enormous losses to human lives and critical infrastructures. Near-real spatial prediction of ETLs can rapidly predict the locations of coseismic landslides just after a violent earthquake and is a vital technical support for emergency response. However, near-real prediction of ETLs has always been a great challenge with relatively low accuracy. This work proposes an ensemble prediction model of EnPr by integrating machine learning tree models and a deep learning convolutional neural network. EnPr exhibits relatively strong prediction and generalization performance and achieves relatively accurate prediction of ETLs. Six great seismic events occurring from 2008 to 2022 on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau are selected to conduct ETL prediction. In a chronological order, the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu, 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan, and 2014 Ms 6.5 Ludian earthquakes are employed for model training and learning. The 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou and 2022 Ms 6.1 Lushan earthquakes are adopted for ETL prediction. The prediction accuracy merits of ACC and AUC attain 91.28% and 0.85, respectively, for the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The values of ACC and AUC achieve 93.78% and 0.88, respectively, for the Lushan earthquake. The proposed EnPr algorithm outperforms the algorithms of XGBoost, random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (ET), convolutional neural network (CNN), and Transformer. Moreover, this work reveals that seismic intensity, high and steep relief, pre-seismic fault tectonics, and pre-earthquake road construction have played significant roles in coseismic landslide occurrence and distribution. The EnPr model uses globally accessible open datasets and can therefore be used worldwide for new large seismic events in the future.