A Novel and Alternative Approach for Direct and Indirect Wind-Power Prediction Methods

Abstract

Wind energy is a variable energy source with a growing presence in many electrical networks across the world. Wind-speed prediction has become an important tool for many agents involved in energy markets. In this paper, an approach to this problem is proposed by means of a novel method that outperforms results obtained by current direct and indirect wind-power prediction procedures. The first difference is that it is not strictly a direct or indirect method in the conventional sense because it uses information from both wind-speed and wind-power data series to obtain a wind-power series. The second difference is that it smooths down the wind-power series obtained in the first stage, and uses the resulting series for predicting new wind-power values. The process of smoothing is based on the label sequence generation process discussed in the pattern sequence forecasting algorithm and the Naive Bayesian method-based matching process. The result is a less chaotic way to predict wind speed than those offered by other existing methods. It has been assessed in multiple simulations, for which three different error measures have been used.