Influence of the ENSO and Monsoonal Season on Long-Term Wind Energy Potential in Malaysia

Abstract

This paper assesses the long-term wind energy potential at three selected sites, namely Mersing and Kijal on the east coast of peninsular Malaysia and Kudat in Sabah. The influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on reanalysis and meteorological wind data was assessed using the dimensionless median absolute deviation and wavelet coherency analysis. It was found that the wind strength increases during La Niña events and decreases during El Niño events. Linear sectoral regression was used to predict the long-term wind speed based on the 35 years of extended Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data and 10 years of meteorological wind data. The long-term monthly energy production was computed based on the 1.5 MW Goldwind wind turbine power curve. The measured wind data were extrapolated to the selected wind turbine default hub height (70 m.a.s.l) by using the site-specific power law indexed. The results showed that the capacity factor is higher during the Northeast monsoon (21.32%) compared to the Southwest monsoon season (3.71%) in Mersing. Moreover, the capacity factor in Kijal is also higher during the Northeast monsoon (10.66%) than during the Southwest monsoon (5.19%). However, in Kudat the capacity factor during the Southwest monsoon (36.42%) is higher compared to the Northeast monsoon (24.61%). This is due to the tail-effect of tropical storms that occur during this season in the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean.