Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo

Abstract

A smart and decentralized electrical system, powered by grid-connected renewable energy (RE) with a reliable storage system, has the potential to change the future socio-economic dynamics. Climate change may, however, affect the potential of RE and its related technologies. This study investigated the impact of climate change on photovoltaic cells’ temperature response and energy potential under two CO2 emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 8.5, for the near future (2024–2040) and mid-century (2041–2065) in Togo. An integrated Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) from the CORDEX-CORE initiative datasets has been used as input. The latter platform recorded various weather variables, such as solar irradiance, air temperature, wind speed and direction, and relative humidity. Results showed that PV cells’ temperature would likely rise over all five regions in the country and may trigger a decline in the PV potential under RCP2.6 and 8.5. However, the magnitude of the induced change, caused by the changing climate, depended on two major factors: (1) the PV technology and (2) geographical position. Results also revealed that these dissimilarities were more pronounced under RCP8.5 with the amorphous technology. It was further found that, nationally, the average cell temperature would have risen by 1 °C and 1.82 °C under RCP2.6 and 8.5, in that order, during the 2024–2065 period for a-Si technology. Finally, the PV potential would likely decrease, on average, by 0.23% for RCP2.6 and 0.4% for RCP8.5 for a-Si technology.