Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy

Abstract

This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen–Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.