Spatiotemporal Patterns of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in the Russian Federation (2007–2022): Using Clustering Tools for Revealing High-Risk Areas
Author:
Zakharova Olga I.1ORCID, Korennoy Fedor I.12ORCID, Yashin Ivan V.1ORCID, Burova Olga A.1ORCID, Liskova Elena A.1ORCID, Gladkova Nadezhda A.1, Razheva Irina V.1, Blokhin Andrey A.1
Affiliation:
1. Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Branch in Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod 603950, Russia 2. Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir 600901, Russia
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease that affects both domestic pigs (DPs) and wild boar (WB). The WB population plays an important role in the spread of ASF as the WB acts as a natural reservoir of the virus and transmits it to other susceptible wild and domestic pigs. Our study was aimed at revealing the areas with a high concentration of the WB population, and their potential relationships with the grouping of ASF cases in WB during the course of the ASF spread in the Russian Federation (2007–2022). We collected the annual data on WB numbers by municipalities within the regions of the most intensive ASF spread. We then conducted spatiotemporal analysis to identify clustering areas of ASF cases and compare them with the territories with a high density of WB population. We found that some of the territories with elevated ASF incidence in WB demonstrated spatial and temporal coincidence with the areas with a high WB population density. We also visualized the zones (“emerging hot spots”) with a statistically significant rise in the WB population density in recent years, which may be treated as areas of paramount importance for the application of surveillance measures and WB population control.
Funder
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology
Subject
General Veterinary,Animal Science and Zoology
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