Lorenz’s View on the Predictability Limit of the Atmosphere

Abstract

To determine whether (or not) the intrinsic predictability limit of the atmosphere is two weeks and whether (or not) Lorenz’s approaches support this limit, this entry discusses the following topics: (A). The Lorenz 1963 model qualitatively revealed the essence of a finite predictability within a chaotic system such as the atmosphere. However, the Lorenz 1963 model did not determine a precise limit for atmospheric predictability. (B). In the 1960s, using real-world models, the two-week predictability limit was originally estimated based on a doubling time of five days. The finding was documented by Charney et al. in 1966 and has become a consensus. Throughout this entry, Major Point A and B are used as respective references for these topics. A literature review and an analysis suggested that the Lorenz 1963 model qualitatively revealed a finite predictability, and that findings of the Lorenz 1969 model with a saturation assumption supported the idea of the two-week predictability limit, which, in the 1960s, was estimated based on a doubling time of five days obtained using real-world models. However, the theoretical Lorenz 1963 and 1969 models have limitations, such as a lack of certain processes and assumptions, and, therefore, cannot represent an intrinsic predictability limit of the atmosphere. This entry suggests an optimistic view for searching for a predictability limit using different approaches and is supported by recent promising simulations that go beyond two weeks.