Dynamic Risk Prediction via a Joint Frailty-Copula Model and IPD Meta-Analysis: Building Web Applications

Abstract

Clinical risk prediction formulas for cancer patients can be improved by dynamically updating the formulas by intermediate events, such as tumor progression. The increased accessibility of individual patient data (IPD) from multiple studies has motivated the development of dynamic prediction formulas accounting for between-study heterogeneity. A joint frailty-copula model for overall survival and time to tumor progression has the potential to develop a dynamic prediction formula of death from heterogenous studies. However, the process of developing, validating, and publishing the prediction formula is complex, which has not been sufficiently described in the literature. In this article, we provide a tutorial in order to build a web-based application for dynamic risk prediction for cancer patients on the basis of the R packages joint.Cox and Shiny. We demonstrate the proposed methods using a dataset of breast cancer patients from multiple clinical studies. Following this tutorial, we demonstrate how one can publish web applications available online, which can be manipulated by any user through a smartphone or personal computer. After learning this tutorial, developers acquire the ability to build an online web application using their own datasets.