Stochastic Dynamic Aircraft System Conflict Distribution under Uncertainties

Abstract

A dynamic aircraft system conflict (concurrent event) situation exists when a time with a loss (-es) of separation (LOS) in their true or predicted trajectories is determined. Regional air traffic management (ATM) programs aim to make ATM safer and more efficient through a higher level of automation for such processes as dynamic aircraft systems concurrent events detection and, consequently, resolution. Therefore, wind and aircraft speed uncertainty parameters should be properly addressed. This paper offers an approach to a dynamic aircraft system flying under a certain concurrent event situation and demonstrates situation stochastic distribution results (output) based on determined wind speed values (while wind direction angles and the dynamic aircraft system speed values are random). Based on these facts, the stochastic dynamic aircraft system conflict distribution information under determined and random parameters might be retrieved at any specific (preferred) time moment. The observations of this study disclosed that such stochastic output data might have a certain impact on safety matters (potential “domino effect” conflicts on a horizontal plane) and on the efficiency (i.e., flight distance which eventually is a determinant of flight time, fuel costs, delays, emissions, monitoring, etc.).