The Impact of Population Migration on Urban Housing Prices: Evidence from China’s Major Cities

Abstract

With increasingly high housing prices, the urban housing problem has changed from an economic issue to a livelihood issue in China. Taking 32 major cities in China as an example, this paper employed data from 2007 to 2016 to build a panel data model to empirically study the impact of population migration on urban housing prices. From the two perspectives of the national level and regional level (eastern region, central region and western region), the results of this study showed that (1) on the national level, population inflow had a significant positive correlation with urban housing prices, where a population inflow rate increase of 1% increased urban housing prices by 0.31%; and (2) on the regional level, a population inflow rate increase of 1% increased urban housing prices in the eastern region by 1.34%, but population inflow had no obvious impact on the urban housing prices in the central and western regions. Based on the results, this study suggested addressing housing supply imbalances through housing product diversification and affordable housing system improvement, and addressing construction land supply imbalances by building a perfect system linking land-use planning to population; at the same time, it also suggested building more nationally central cities following the urbanization trend, and taking this as the key to developing urban agglomerations, reasonably decentralizing the population flow, promoting the healthy and stable development of the real-estate market and advancing sustainable urbanization. The above conclusions have practical significance for China and other developing countries to coordinate population and urban development in the process of rapid urbanization.