On Present Value Evaluation under the Impact of Behavioural Factors Using Oriented Fuzzy Numbers

Abstract

In general, the present value (PV) concept is ambiguous. Therefore, behavioural factors may influence on the PV evaluation. The main aim of our paper is to propose some method of soft computing PV evaluated under the impact of behavioural factors. The starting point for our discussion is the notion of the Behavioural PV (BPV) defined as an imprecisely real-valued function of distinguished variables which can be evaluated using objective financial knowledge or subjective behavioural premises. In our paper, a BPV is supplemented with a forecast of the asset price closest to changes. Such BPV is called the oriented BPV (O-BPV). We propose to evaluate an O-BPV by oriented fuzzy numbers which are more useful for portfolio analysis than fuzzy numbers. This fact determines the significance of the research described in this article. O-BPV may be applied as input signal for systems supporting invest-making. We consider here six cases of O-BPV: overvalued asset with the prediction of a rise in its price, overvalued asset with the prediction of a fall in its price, undervalued asset with the prediction of a rise in its price, undervalued asset with the prediction of a fall in its price, fully valued asset with the prediction of a rise in its rice and fully valued asset with the prediction of a fall in its rice. All our considerations are illustrated by numerical examples. Presented examples show the way in which we transform superposition of objective market knowledge and subjective investment opinion into simple return rate.