Post-Failure Dynamics of Rainfall-Induced Landslide in Oltrepò Pavese

Abstract

Prediction of landslide hazard risk at hill slope induced by intense rainfall requires the appropriate modeling of the interactions between soil and weather phenomena, leading to failure as well as a reliable prediction of post-failure dynamics. In the peculiar case of fast shallow landslides behaving like dense granular flows, a suitable modeling approach for large and rapid deformations is necessary to estimate potential related damage. The impact force exerted by the leading edge of the earth-flow on the downstream structure should be estimated for both damage prediction and design of effective protection measures. In this paper, a free open source 3D research code based on standard weakly compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (WCSPH) method is validated by modeling a full-scale rainfall-induced shallow landslide which occurred in Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The code allows resolving the vertical velocity gradients, potentially providing a more reliable representation of the landslide dynamics and impact force. Mechanical parameters are consistent with average soil characteristics, avoiding calibration analysis. The final landslide profile is compared with an experimental survey for model validation, showing good fit. Influence of uncertainties of geotechnical parameters on the landslide front velocity and impact force on the downstream wall is evaluated.